In a few months we may find ourselves with skyrocketing food prices and a mass of unemployed who will not be able to buy them. A real social time bomb that should be defused and that instead the fiscal measures taken by Europe and Italy do not seem able to do it. What is happening in the raw materials sector, particularly agricultural ones, is a dynamic that will affect all the others, including oil, whose prices are particularly low today. Generally, when there are changes in trend, foodstuffs tend to anticipate economic cycles.
Groceries come from a decade of falling prices, in fact since the peak of March 31, 2008 the index has registered a decrease of 55%. The reduction in supply was also followed by a reduction in production capacity. At the end of Covid, I hope shortly, the market will have to deal with the recovery in consumption, linked to the return to normal after the lockdown, and above all for the stabilizing effect on the economy that fiscal and monetary stimuli will have. The plant of the support interventions reaches 5000 billion dollars. This will cause food prices to surge further in the coming months and lead to higher consumer prices. Decisions are slow in Europe and businesses are dying in the meantime. The longer it delays, the more the production and industrial capacity of the countries in greatest difficulty is reduced. If we continue not to give financial gasoline, at the reopening, in Italy there will be an extermination of small and medium-sized enterprises that will no longer reopen. And in Italy, resources are all aimed at supporting income. If this discourse becomes systemic when it reopens, the offer will not be able to keep up with demand. This phenomenon combined with the increase in raw material prices will really cause a very worrying macroeconomic scenario “, Soybean rice grain will cost more. The increase in the prices of wheat, rice, soybeans tomorrow could become dramatic We risk that power consumer purchasing, already compromised by job loss and reduced activity, is further undermined. We must be careful because all the social revolts have always started from bread “.